Powell Signals Fed May Cut Rates Soon, But Inflation Risks Keep Path Uncertain

摘要： 美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，美联储可能在不久的将来降息，但通胀风险仍然存在，使得降息路径充满不确定性，这一决策将对经济和金融市场产生重大影响，需要密切关注通胀数据和美联储的政策动向。...

美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，美联储可能在不久的将来降息，但通胀风险仍然存在，使得降息路径充满不确定性，这一决策将对经济和金融市场产生重大影响，需要密切关注通胀数据和美联储的政策动向。

TMTPOST -- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday suggested the U.S. central bank could lower interest rates in the coming months, even as he cautioned that stubborn inflationary pressures mean any move will be deliberate and data-driven.

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His remarks, delivered at the Fed’s closely watched annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, left investors betting on a rate cut as early as September, while underscoring the policy challenges of a slowing job market and resurgent price pressures.

Powell noted that risks to the economy have shifted in recent months, with unemployment showing signs of edging up even as tariffs and supply shocks push consumer prices higher.

“The shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said in his keynote address. The line was widely interpreted by markets as his clearest signal yet that a rate cut is under serious consideration.

Still, Powell emphasized that the central bank would not act hastily. “The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully,” he said, underscoring that the Fed’s decisions will hinge on incoming economic data.

The Fed has three meetings left this year—September, late October, and December—but Powell gave no hint of how many, if any, of those gatherings might result in rate cuts.

Equities jumped after Powell’s remarks. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% in midday trading, extending recent gains on hopes that borrowing costs may ease. Yields on Treasuries slipped modestly, while the dollar weakened against major peers.

Goldman Sachs economists told clients that Powell’s comments aligned with their forecast for a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 meeting. The Fed’s benchmark rate currently stands at 4.3%, its highest in more than two decades.

Powell spoke as the Fed faced an unusual degree of political scrutiny. U.S. President Donald Trump has for months lambasted Powell for keeping rates “too high” and has urged swift cuts, arguing such a move would lower the government’s borrowing costs on its $37 trillion debt and revive the housing market.

While Powell was speaking in Wyoming, Trump sharpened his attacks in Washington. He told reporters that he would seek the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud raised by an administration official. If Cook were forced out, Trump could install a loyalist on the Fed board, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence.

Later in the day, the president mocked Powell, calling him “too late” in acting. “He should have cut them a year ago,” Trump said.

Fed chairs traditionally steer clear of politics, and Powell reaffirmed that stance. “We will make these decisions based solely on our assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks,” he said. “We will never deviate from that approach.”

Powell acknowledged that tariffs imposed in recent months are lifting consumer prices, with further increases likely ahead. “The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible,” he said. “We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts.”

U.S. consumer prices rose 2.7% in July from a year earlier, above the Fed’s 2% target. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, climbed 3.1%. While down sharply from a peak of 9.1% in 2022, the figures highlight the persistence of inflationary pressures even as growth cools.

Powell suggested tariff-driven increases might prove to be a one-off adjustment rather than a sustained surge. Still, he vowed the Fed would not allow temporary shocks to morph into entrenched inflation. “Come what may, we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem,” he said, a line seen as a rebuke to Trump’s calls for deep rate cuts.

On the jobs front, Powell painted a mixed picture. Hiring has slowed significantly this year, though unemployment remains historically low. With immigration declining, he noted, the U.S. economy may require fewer jobs to keep unemployment steady.

Yet sluggish hiring raises the risk of a sharper downturn. “The danger of rising layoffs has increased,” Powell said, warning that a softening labor market could amplify recession risks if left unaddressed.

The dual risks—tariff-driven inflation and weakening job creation—have left the Fed in a delicate position. Cutting rates too soon could fuel inflation, while waiting too long could push the economy into a deeper slowdown.

In the second half of his speech, Powell unveiled updates to the Fed’s policy framework, which guides how officials respond to shifts in inflation and employment.

The current framework, adopted in August 2020 amid the pandemic, was designed for an era of chronically low inflation and low interest rates. It allowed inflation to run above 2% temporarily in order to average that target over time, while focusing on “shortfalls” in employment rather than “deviations.”

But the post-pandemic economy has upended those assumptions. Inflation surged to a four-decade high in 2022, forcing the Fed into its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s.

“A key objective has been to make sure that our framework is suitable across a broad range of economic conditions,” Powell said. He did not detail the changes but suggested the new version would give policymakers greater flexibility in responding to inflation spikes while maintaining their commitment to maximum employment.

Powell’s Jackson Hole address drew central bankers, academics, and economists from around the world. Attendees gave him a standing ovation before his remarks, underscoring his stature even amid intense political pressure at home.

The symposium, held each year in Wyoming’s Grand Teton mountains, has often been the stage for pivotal Fed announcements. Former Chair Ben Bernanke used the conference in 2010 to signal the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing, while Powell himself has in past years laid out his evolving views on inflation dynamics.

This year’s speech comes at a critical juncture, with global financial markets anxiously parsing Powell’s every word for clues about the Fed’s next move.

The path forward remains uncertain. Much will depend on how inflation and hiring data evolve in the coming months. If inflation continues to ease while job growth weakens further, the case for a September cut could solidify. But if tariffs keep pushing up prices, Powell may find it harder to justify loosening policy.

For now, markets appear convinced that relief is on the horizon. Futures trading shows investors pricing in roughly a 70% chance of a September cut, according to CME FedWatch data.

Powell, however, left no doubt that the central bank will remain cautious. “We will not overreact to short-term fluctuations,” he said. “But neither will we hesitate to act if the balance of risks shifts decisively.”

With three policy meetings left in 2025, the Fed chair has given himself maximum flexibility—keeping the prospect of rate cuts alive while reserving the right to wait.